When considering Middle East politics and security, especially from the American

perspective, I often write that American analysts are reluctant to address the 8,000 pound elephant in the room – Israel. In this month’s
Foreign Policy, Josef Joffe
wants to consider an Israel-free Middle East
Imagine that Israel never existed. Would the economic malaise and political repression that drive angry young men to become suicide bombers vanish? Would the Palestinians have an independent state? Would the United States, freed of its burdensome ally, suddenly find itself beloved throughout the Muslim world? Wishful thinking. Far from creating tensions, Israel actually contains more antagonisms than it causes.
This is a great premise, but Joffe doesn’t deliver the goods. There is a fair amount of straw manning and very weak counterfactual arguments. Here’s an example of Joffe’s weak argumentation
If one believes former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter, the Arab-Islamic quest for weapons of mass destruction, and by extension the war against Iraq, are also Made in Israel. “[A]s long as Israel has nuclear weapons,” Ritter opines, “it has chosen to take a path that is inherently confrontational.…Now the Arab countries, the Muslim world, is not about to sit back and let this happen, so they will seek their own deterrent. We saw this in Iraq, not only with a nuclear deterrent but also with a biological weapons deterrent…that the Iraqis were developing to offset the Israeli nuclear superiority.”
This theory would be engaging if it did not collide with some inconvenient facts. Iraqis didn’t use their weapons of mass destruction against the Israeli usurper but against fellow Muslims during the Iran-Iraq War, and against fellow Iraqis in the poison-gas attack against Kurds in Halabja in 1988—neither of whom were brandishing any nuclear weapons. As for the Iraqi nuclear program, we now have the “Duelfer Report,” based on the debriefing of Iraqi regime loyalists, which concluded: “Iran was the pre-eminent motivator of this policy. All senior-level Iraqi officials considered Iran to be Iraq’s principal enemy in the region. The wish to balance Israel and acquire status and influence in the Arab world were also considerations, but secondary.”
Secondary considerations do not mean
non-existent. And the gas attack on the Kurds is a ridiculous example. Iraq can’t have enmity toward Israel
and the Kurds? Poison gas has nothing to do with nuclear weapons anyway and I would argue that classifying it as a weapon of mass destruction is incorrect in the first place.
Here’s another example
Those who think that the Middle East conflict is a “Muslim-Jewish thing” had better take a closer look at the score card: 14 years of sectarian bloodshed in Lebanon; Saddam’s campaign of extinction against the Shia in the aftermath of the first Gulf War; Syria’s massacre of 20,000 people in the Muslim Brotherhood stronghold of Hama in 1982; and terrorist violence against Egyptian Christians in the 1990s. Add to this tally intraconfessional oppression, such as in Saudi Arabia, where the fundamentalist Wahhabi sect wields the truncheon of state power to inflict its dour lifestyle on the less devout.
This a good example of Joffe’s straw men. No one is arguing that the Middle East or Arab governments would be completely pacific given the absence of Israel. The argument is that Israel is just one (major) variable in Middle East politics. This argument is prominent because people see it as one that is existential because of U.S. support for Israel and perceived injustice toward the Palestinians. It’s silly to try to reduce Middle East politics to a “Muslim-Jewish thing” which is what Joffe wants us to believe a majority is doing.
Joffe continues in this vein
The existence of Israel cannot explain the breadth and depth of the Mukhabarat states (secret police states) throughout the Middle East. With the exceptions of Jordan, Morocco, and the Gulf sheikdoms, which gingerly practice an enlightened monarchism, all Arab countries (plus Iran and Pakistan) are but variations of despotism—from the dynastic dictatorship of Syria to the authoritarianism of Egypt.
…
Again, it would take a florid imagination to surmise that factoring Israel out of the Middle East equation would produce liberal democracy in the region. It might be plausible to argue that the dialectic of enmity somehow favors dictatorship in “frontline states” such as Egypt and Syria—governments that invoke the proximity of the “Zionist threat” as a pretext to suppress dissent. But how then to explain the mayhem in faraway Algeria, the bizarre cult-of-personality regime in Libya, the pious kleptocracy of Saudi Arabia, the clerical despotism of Iran, or democracy’s enduring failure to take root in Pakistan? Did Israel somehow cause the various putsches that produced the republic of fear in Iraq? If Jordan, the state sharing the longest border with Israel, can experiment with constitutional monarchy, why not Syria?
Again, I would ask, who is it that is blaming Israel for the status quo? Arab or Persian enmity toward Israel is separate from the reality of every day politics. What analysts are drawing a direct link between Qaddafi’s regime and the existence of Israel? Perhaps I’m ignorant on this, but this is where Joffe’s counterfactual arguments are essentially nonexistent to show the logic.
Here’s a final egregious bit of argumentation
Finally, the most popular what-if issue of them all: Would the Islamic world hate the United States less if Israel vanished? Like all what-if queries, this one, too, admits only suggestive evidence. To begin, the notion that 5 million Jews are solely responsible for the rage of 1 billion or so Muslims cannot carry the weight assigned to it. Second, Arab-Islamic hatreds of the United States preceded the conquest of the West Bank and Gaza. Recall the loathing left behind by the U.S.-managed coup that restored the shah’s rule in Tehran in 1953, or the U.S. intervention in Lebanon in 1958. As soon as Britain and France left the Middle East, the United States became the dominant power and the No. 1 target. Another bit of suggestive evidence is that the fiercest (unofficial) anti-Americanism emanates from Washington’s self-styled allies in the Arab Middle East, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Is this situation because of Israel—or because it is so convenient for these regimes to “busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels” (as Shakespeare’s Henry IV put it) to distract their populations from their dependence on the “Great Satan”?
This again supposes that observers are reducing all Arab hostilities to opposition to Israel. No one is doing that. Who could reasonably argue that Iran’s poor relations with the U.S. are related to Israel? I don’t think anyone is making that argument.
A great opportunity is missed in this article to truly examine Israel’s role in creating tension in the Middle East. But Joffe has an agenda and it prevents him from making a sound case. I for one think especially with regards to security, Israel does and has played a significant role in shaping the situation in the Middle East. After all the 1967 and 1973 wars involved Israel. If it didn’t exist, the wars couldn’t have happened. That’s simplistic counterfactual reasoning. The questions Joffe proffers at the outset require much more complex analysis than he engages in. But
read and decide for yourself.