Wednesday, August 28, 2002

[5:05 PM] Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Institute admonishes some “well-meaning political figures” who are getting ahead of themselves in assessing Iraq’s WMD capabilities. Senator James Inhofe said on Meet the Press recently “Our intelligence system has said that we know that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction -- I believe including nuclear. There's not one person on this panel who would tell you unequivocally that he doesn't have the missile means now, or is nearly getting the missile means to deliver a weapon of mass destruction. And I for one am not willing to wait for that to happen.”

Cirincione counters:

In fact, U.S. intelligence agencies do not believe that Iraq has a nuclear weapon, or that the country is near developing either a nuclear weapon or a long-range missile.

Effective policy must be governed by facts, not fears. Step one is to disaggregate the now over-used catch phrase "weapons of mass destruction" that includes nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. All are not equal in threat. The possession or use of a chemical weapon that could kill dozens is not as dangerous as the possession or use of a nuclear weapon that could kill millions.

Iraq almost certainly does not have nuclear weapons; but it almost certainly does have large numbers of chemical weapons and some biological weapons or agents. It does not have any missiles or planes that could strike the United States from its territory and it has very few that could deliver these weapons more than a few miles outside its borders.

Read the rest here.

# posted 5:07 PM

[3:49 PM] It’s here! Transparency International’s 2002 Corruption Perceptions Index. The CPI score “relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as seen by business people and risk analysts, and ranges between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt).”

Who’s most and least corrupt? Finland is still holding on at #1 (least corrupt) and Bangladesh still bringing up the rear. Other countries of note: USA #17, Colombia and Mexico tie at #57, Egypt #62, India #71, Pakistan #77.

So two of the three biggest recipients of U.S. foreign aid — Egypt and Colombia — are toward the bottom of the list.

1 Finland 9.7
2 Denmark, New Zealand 9.5
4 Iceland 9.4
5 Singapore 9.3

98 Angola, Madagascar, Paraguay 1.7
101 Nigeria 1.6
102 Bangladesh 1.2

# posted 3:54 PM

Tuesday, August 27, 2002

[3:04 PM] Now the U.S. is threatening to take its NATO marbles and go home if European allies don’t get with it and see eye-to-eye with U.S. on the International Criminal Court. While all this posturing and hand wringing is going on, aren’t U.S. troops still vulnerable to the ICC – the bilateral agreements with Israel, Romania, and East Timor don’t seem all that important. Fields Report predicts that exemption agreements or not, there will never be any of this nonsensical “politically motivated” complaints to the ICC against U.S. servicemembers or diplomats. Of course, if the Bush administration succeeds in securing a substantial number of agreements with other countries, it will say that these in effect were the only safeguards in place that prevent an avalanche of phony accusations from coming forth. But Fields Report also predicts that these agreements will never happen. So the question is, after a period of time — especially if there is armed action against Iraq — and no marines or peacekeepers are accused of being war criminals, will the administration quietly change its tune about the court? I won’t hold my breath. But I’ll certainly point out the fatuousness of the administration’s original objections.

# posted 3:07 PM

[2:27 PM] Fareed Zakaria says “If the administration stays on its current path, there will be no conflict with Iraq. However justified the cause, the United States will not initiate a war against another country without a specific provocation. We are simply not going to do it.”

His reasoning is that there has to be a trigger—a casus belli. He continues

“no president is going to make a speech from the Oval Office saying, ‘Guess what, folks? Today I’ve decided to send American forces to invade Iraq and replace Saddam Hussein’s regime. God bless and good night.’

Remember that at the height of the Cuban missile crisis—when the Soviet Union was placing offensive nuclear missiles in Cuba aimed directly at the United States—John F. Kennedy rejected the option of attacking Cuba. 'I don’t think I want my brother to become another Tojo,' explained Robert Kennedy, referring to the general who planned the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.”

Maybe we should worry. Ahem. GWB is no Jack Kennedy.

# posted 2:29 PM

[2:14 PM] Read Carnegie's “A Brief History of Iraq's Nuclear Weapon Program” here.

# posted 2:17 PM

Monday, August 26, 2002

[3:04 PM] The U.N.’s World Summit on Sustainable Development begins today in Johannesburg. One of the issues on that will be discussed is the world’s dwindling supply of potable water. This story in the New York Times Magazine reports that 97.5% of the world’s water is salt water. I’ve often wondered why we don’t hear much discussion of desalination of seawater to make it drinkable. Of the 30 seconds that this was discussed in my college chemistry course, the only thing I remember was that it is a very expensive endeavor. This interesting website explains some of the various processes used to desalinate seawater.

# posted 3:17 PM

Sunday, August 25, 2002

[3:57 PM] On Wednesday, Berlin-based NGO Transparency International will release its 2002 Corruption Perceptions Index, which ranks the levels of corruption in countries around the world. This year the list will include 102 countries.

Last year, the bottom of the list (the most corrupt countries) included Pakistan, Russia, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Uganda, with Bangladesh ranking the most corrupt. It will be interesting to see where Russia and new friend Pakistan rank this year.

# posted 4:14 PM

Monday, August 19, 2002

[6:00 PM] Fields Report is on vacation until Friday, August 23.

# posted 6:04 PM

Thursday, August 15, 2002

[12:11 PM] Remember the war on terrorism? What happened to it? Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. Is all we hear these days. And if that’s because the media chooses to focus on it, fine. Why isn’t the administration continuing to let us know how the “war” is going (or where it is going)?

What brings this to mind is Axis of Evil member, Iran. It seems to me by this administration’s own perverse logic, that Iran is getting off relatively easy in this war on terrorism. Iraq, which has never been proven to be linked to September 11th is garnering all the attention. But Iran also appears on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism and openly funds Hizballah. And remember all those weapons seized off the Karine-A allegedly destined for the Palestinian Authority? They came from Iran. Oh yeah, then there’s the pesky little matter of the nuclear reactor Russia is building Iran.

So what gives? Why no fuss about “regime change” in Iran.

Don’t get me wrong, Iran deserves a very well-thought out, nuanced policy. But I don’t believe this administration is capable of such, so shouldn’t they be as zealous if not more so about the “Iranian problem” as unseating Saddam Hussein?

Not to worry though; GWB has no war plans on his desk.

# posted 12:16 PM

Wednesday, August 14, 2002

[10:02 AM] The U.S. is busy running around trying to secure bilateral agreements with countries to ensure that they will not turn over U.S. peacekeepers to the International Criminal Court. I’ve commented before on how fatuous this whole ordeal is. But now that war with Iraq is on the horizon, I’m struck by the how little if any attention has been paid to how the ICC will (and does right now) affect not just peacekeepers, but ordinary soldiers. They fall under the jurisdiction of the ICC as well. There doesn’t seem to be any concern, at least right now about the regular troops on the ground in Afghanistan. They have the potential to be just as culpable as peacekeepers in the eyes of the ICC. Additionally, ground troops are more likely to be in positions that would open them up to the fantasy “politically motivated” charges of war crimes that the Bush administration fears. So is this just matter of peacekeepers being the hot issue of the moment and the administration will get around to worrying about the rest of soldiers later, or is the American Servicemembers Protection Act going to provide blanket protection for all of them?

# posted 10:11 AM

Monday, August 12, 2002

[4:31 PM] How ironic. Leftist Colombian guerrillas finance a large portion of their operation by kidnapping and ransoming wealthy Colombians. Now faced with the daunting challenge of living up to his get tough campaign promises, new president Alvaro Uribe has declared a 90-day state of emergency and announced plans to raise $780 million by imposing an assets tax on wealthier Colombians. The money will go for “two new elite mobile brigades with 3,000 troops, 10,000 additional police officers and a network of 100,000 civilian ‘police auxiliaries.’”

# posted 4:39 PM

Thursday, August 08, 2002

[2:40 PM] Here's an excerpt from Alvaro Uribe's inauguration speech yesterday:

But this, as a sign of decay in social capital, is not born of the nature of being a Colombian, which is both civic-minded and humanitarian. The reason for it is the destruction wrought by violence, of political chicanery and of corruption, which combine to cause uncertainty, poverty and inequality.

Colombia faces a series of grave difficulties. Nine million of our people live in misery, 57% are on the poverty line, 16% are unemployed and six and a half million are underemployed. The deficit represents 3% of our gross domestic product, and the capacity to pay public debt has reached its limit. If the same number of murders were committed here as in England, there would be 200 of them every year. One murder is serious enough, and so are 200: but we have 34,000. In kidnaps, of which between 3,000 and 3,600 are reported, we account for 60% of all such crimes in the world. And each kidnap means suffering, the flight of capital, and unemployment.

We didn't come to complain, we got here to work.

It will be impossible to solve everything in four years, but we shall spare no effort to try. That is my duty to our youth and to future generations. It is my obligation of honor to those 80% of Colombians, the young now awakening to life, who need us to do whatever is right to ensure that their hopes may flower into reality. We must do our work well, and restore the faith of a people which has never bowed its head, but which does call for a steady hand at the helm and stem the tide of misery and criminal attack.

# posted 2:41 PM

Wednesday, August 07, 2002

# posted 2:53 PM

[2:24 PM] Alvaro Uribe was sworn in today a Colombia’s new president. Just before inauguration bombs went off killing at least 9 people (El Tiempo , Colombia's largest newspaper reports 13 dead).

# posted 2:48 PM

Tuesday, August 06, 2002

[3:05 PM]Colombia’s new president Alvaro Uribe takes office on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the war rages on. No articles from any of the major U.S. newspapers. The American papers are saving it all until tomorrow I suppose. Here’s the Financial Times’ take.

# posted 3:08 PM

[2:27 PM] The Christian Science Monitor runs a story about Palestinians going hungry because of Israeli restrictions limiting their ability to get around and buy food. Suicide bomber count, a refreshing zero!

The article notes that the "descent into hunger and ill health is part of a larger story of Palestinian suffering that until now has gone largely unnoticed amid the more dramatic airstrikes and suicide bombings that have punctuated two years of fighting in the Middle East."

It didnt escape the United States Agency for International Development, which Monday issued the report on malnutrition among Palestinian children. It escaped the Monitor (and many other media outlets) not because the story went "unnoticed" but because noticing the humanitarian plight of the Palestinians is not sexy journalism. This story didn't go "unnoticed" it has been ignored.

# posted 2:35 PM

Monday, August 05, 2002

[1:57 PM] The World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesberg is three weeks away. Ahead of the summit, Colin Powell said that an “unholy trinity of poverty, ecological degradation and despair threatens to destabilize whole regions.”

Click here to read some background materials on the issues to be discussed. Click here to read about how prostitutes and strippers are preparing for the summit.

# posted 2:01 PM

[10:57 AM] Thomas Friedman is quite upset at the Bush administration's muted response to the sentencing of an Egyptian democracy advocate to seven years in prison. Friedman writes “How about before we go trying to liberate a whole country — Iraq — we first liberate just one man, one good man, who is now sitting in an Egyptian jail for pursuing the very democratic ideals that we profess to stand for.”

Obviously the Middle East is his region of expertise. And of course he should be outraged – at the imprisonment. But his chastising the Bush administration for its response doesn’t ring true. Here we are trying to promote democracy in a place like Iraq and we can’t come up with a better response when one of our allies in the region takes such drastic measures. This is Friedman’s argument.

But since when has the U.S. been a champion of democracy? Only when it fits into U.S. strategic or economic interests. This shouldn’t baffle Friedman and he is certainly not that naïve. But when the United States selectively ignores repression, he and is fellow journalists shoulder some responsibility to point this out. But so often we’re subjected to the excuses media organizations make for why they can’t cover certain international topics (so many times its about Africa). “Like it or not, we have to worry about our rating to stay in business. And people won’t watch that,” is what we hear.

There are thousands of dissidents in prison all over the world and the U.S. doesn’t take up their causes unless there is some direct relevance to American interests. Friedman knows this and it makes his indignation seem a bit forced.

# posted 11:01 AM

[10:20 AM] The so-called “Hague Invasion Act” a.k.a. the American Servicemembers Protection Act became law last week. This law authorizes the use of military force to free any American or citizen of a U.S.-allied country being held by the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Human Rights Watch says “The states that have ratified this treaty are trying to strengthen the rule of law. The Bush administration is trying to punish them for that.”

# posted 10:24 AM

Saturday, August 03, 2002

[10:10 AM] Hamas apparently regrets killing any foreigners or Americans (I guess Americans have special status) in the bombiing of Hebrew University. But if you have dual Israeli citizenship, you're still a target.

# posted 10:17 AM

Friday, August 02, 2002

[11:38 AM] Turkey's parliament has voted to abolish the death penalty in a bid to join the E.U. The death sentence would be replaced by life imprisonment with capital punishment remaining an option in times of war. Turkey has not executed anyone since 1984 and there are 50 people currently on death row in that country. There are 458 people currently on death row in Texas.

# posted 11:40 AM

[11:28 AM] Romania has signed an agreement with the United States preventing it from turning over U.S. citizens to the International Criminal Court, becoming the first country to do so.

# posted 11:31 AM

Thursday, August 01, 2002

[4:37 PM] The International Crisis Group has just issued a report on reforming madrasas in Pakistan. Madrasas provide education to millions of Pakistanis who cannot get it anywhere else.

The report says that “Pakistan has pledged to reform the madrasa sector – the thousands of religious schools that provide basic education to millions, but have also contributed to extremism.”

In relation to an earlier post, I notice that many journalists have co-opted the term madrasa and use it to mean a school that teaches militant extremism, which is misleading. This, however, is the sort of small issue that some journalists who cover international affairs see as insignificant but I view as lazy and culturally insensitive.

Here is an excerpt from the report:

Madrasas have a long history in Pakistan and in Muslim societies generally. They serve socially important purposes, and it is reasonable for a government to seek to modernise and adapt rather than eliminate them. International assistance to Pakistani education, especially from Western donors, however, should focus heavily on rebuilding a secular system that has been allowed to decay for three decades. Any international assistance for the government’s madrasa reform project should be closely tied to proof that it represents a genuine commitment to promote moderate, modern education.

Musharraf’s clampdown on foreigners linked to the Taliban and al-Qaeda shows that international pressure can work. It is what will determine if and when the government will enact tangible madrasa reform. International acceptance of the military’s domestic manoeuvres in exchange for support in the war on terrorism risks more extremism in the not distant future that will be hard to contain. Wavering by important international actors, especially the U.S., will not only increase extremist threats to Pakistan but eventually also undermine global security and stability.

# posted 4:41 PM

[3:49 PM] Colin Powell is now saying that the U.S. has to open a dialog with North Korea. At least that the way the media report are presenting it. Didn’t he say this a year and a half ago only to be reversed by the president?

It strikes me as particularly important now with all the Iraq talk going around. If the U.S. truly sees Iraq as a threat, then what about North Korea? North Korea is alleged to have a couple of nuclear weapons and does have a missile program much more advanced than Iraq's. The 2001 National Intelligence Estimate puts North Korea only a few years away from being able to hit the continental U.S. with a missile (it actually is much more complicated and debatable than that) making it a more viable threat than Iraq. But one thing constraining North Korea’s missile program is it’s self-imposed moratorium on flight-testing any missiles until 2003. Time is running out though and the administration seems content to worry about Iraq rather than the other two Axes of Evil despite the fact the both Iran and North Korea have considerably more developed missile programs than Iraq (those chemical weapons have to be delivered some way).

# posted 4:03 PM

[2:46 PM] When I started this little adventure, one thing I wanted to avoid was a lot of the usual name-dropping and links and references to other web logs. I wanted to provide some commentary and links to stories that readers might not otherwise read about international affairs. That said I will take this opportunity to briefly talk about James Taranto’s “Best of the Web Today” which is affiliated with the Wall Street Journal. (Click here to subscribe)

I read it most days and many of his comments about Arabs, Muslims, and other cultures in general strike me as bigoted, ignorant, and just plain offensive. Most days I fume for a few minutes and move on. But today I read this in ArabNews. John R. Bradley who works for the Associated Press, apparently has had enough. Taranto he writes “makes his living by insulting on a daily basis the religion and culture of more than a billion of the world’s population…” I have to agree. Taranto makes no secret of his pro-Israel tilt, but he expresses his sympathies by denigrating Arabs and Muslims in general and overall comes off quite xenophobic. This attitude was one of the motivating factors in starting this operation – a somewhat condescending view of the rest of the world, especially Arabs and Muslims by some American journalists, which in turn compromises some of their ability to report accurately. Most journalists probably don’t realize it when subtle condescension seeps into their reporting and that’s lamentable but excusable on many occasions. Taranto though seems to revel in it, and that is quite disgusting.

# posted 3:35 PM